机器勿入,How has the credit boom made things worse?The figure ab

机器勿入,
How has the credit boom made things worse?
The figure above,being an injection for consumption of almost £12 billion per quarter from non-building related mortgage borrowing,only affects those with a home to borrow against.Those who do not own property have also been borrowing in a big way.Unsecured lending has increased dramatically in the last few years.For the first four months of 2006 it increased by £1 billion per month and is now in total at £191 billion.This means the average person has an outstanding unsecured debt of about £3,000,so that our family of four has,on average,unsecured debt of over £12,000.The increase in this sort of debt has meant a large boost to consumption and imports.Should the economy turn down sharply,much of the population will find it very painful or impossible to service this debt.
All this extra income coming into the economy creates a “multiplier effect” – consumers spend money and some of this goes to other consumers who in turn spend it,so that a large injection of new money has an even larger impact on overall consumption than one might expect.Added to this is the confidence factor – people see most people around them spending freely and talking optimistically of the future.Together these effects create a boom in spending.
Will our invisible exports surplus (trade in services) compensate for our lack of manufacturing?

信用卡贷款的繁荣怎么会事情更加糟糕呢?
以上的数据,对于每季度近乎120亿英镑的非购房抵押贷款的消费来说只是微不足道,这只会对那些需要购房贷款的人有影响.但是那些没有不动产的人同样也贷款很多.近年来无保障贷款大幅增长,2006年的前4个月,每月增长10亿英镑,目前已经达到了1910亿英镑之多.这意味着每个人都有将近3000英镑的可能无法偿还的债务,所以一个四口之家平均就有12000英镑的无保障贷款.这种类型的贷款的增加意味着消费和进口的急剧扩大.如果经济急剧滑落,很多人会发现偿还这些贷款将是非常痛苦或者是不可能的事情.
所有这些额外的收入都会造成一种乘法效应,也就是说,消费者花费了这些钱,而其他的消费者又会得到这些钱钟的一部分,他们又会把这些钱花掉,所以进入的这一大批钱对整体消费所产生的影响会远远大于你能所预期的.居于这支上海有信心的因素,人们看到他们周围的人随意地花钱,乐观地谈论将来.这所有的一切影响都造成了花费的增长.
我们无形的出口顺差会弥补我们的生产不足吗?