英语翻译Did Trade Linkages Play a Role?We also estimate regressi

英语翻译
Did Trade Linkages Play a Role?
We also estimate regressions with the WEO forecast dataset to examine growth revisions for 126 countries,including low-income as well as emerging market countries,and to explore whether other channels,such as trade linkages,mattered for a broader set of countries.
Interestingly,the trade channel appears to matter in this sample.Although the degree of trade openness is not statistically significant,the composition of trade makes a significant difference.In particular,the share of commodities (both food and overall) in total exports is associated with smaller downward growth revisions.The share of manufacturing products in total exports is correlated with worse growth performance both for advanced as well as developing countries.This is consistent with the notion that countries exporting manufacturing goods to advanced countries seem to have been hit hard by the decline in demand from these markets,while countries exporting food appear to have fared better.
However,in line with the results using the Consensus forecasts,the trade channel does not seem to be important for emerging markets.When including interaction variables of the trade measures and a dummy for emerging markets,these interaction terms enter with a coefficient of similar magnitude but opposite sign,implying an overall effect of zero for emerging market countries.
Financial vulnerabilities also have a statistically significant effect on the growth revisions in this sample,and we now find that a larger stock of lending from advanced countries contributed to a more severe downward revision of the growth forecast.
Robustness Tests
The results are largely robust to changes in periods of Consensus Forecasts changes.Moving from changes in averages to April or to August does not make much difference.Although cumulative credit growth using revisions from April 2008 to 2009 loses its statistical significance,its economic significance is the same.
We also ran regressions with WEO forecast changes using the same set of countries that we used for the Consensus Forecasts sample.The only substantial change in the results is that leverage is no longer significant.As mentioned in the data section,the main difference between Consensus and WEO forecast changes concerns Eastern European countries:the forecast revisions are much larger for these countries in the Consensus dataset than in the WEO data.Given the importance of leverage for this region,the correlation is weaker with more moderate growth revisions in the WEO sample.

贸易联系具有重要作用吗?
我们也通过《世界经济展望》中的预期数据,估计未来经济走势,以检验包括低收入国家和新兴市场国家在内的126个国家的经济增长情况,并探索是否有其他渠道,如贸易联系,可以在较大范围的国家中产生重要影响.
有趣的是,贸易渠道在这些范例中似乎都产生了重要作用.尽管各个国家的贸易开放程度在数据上差异并不明显,但具体内容却区别显著.尤其是,食品和服装在出口总额中所占份额伴随着较小的增长修正,而制成品占据的份额则导致发达国家和发展中国家的糟糕经济增长表现.这一情况正好印证了这样一个观点：向发达国家出口制成品的的国家似乎受到了这些国家需求减少的冲击,而出口食品的国家似乎发展更好.
然而,按照舆论普遍采纳的预期数据,贸易渠道对于新兴市场似乎并不重要.当新兴市场内有可变的互动贸易措施,这些互动条件具有相似的影响力但要求相反,这意味着对于新兴市场国国家,总体仍是一个零和的效果.在这个模式中,金融的脆弱性对增长修正也有一个理论上的影响,而且,我们现在发现,向发达国家的大规模接待导致了更严重的预期增长下滑.
稳健性测试
结果完全符合共识预期变化期间的改变.由平均变化转向四月或八月的变化并没有太大不同.尽管从2008年4月到2009年使用修正的累计信用增长失去了它的理论意义,但它的经济意义还是一样的.
我们用当初在共识预期中使用的相同一组样本国家,对照《世界经济展望》的预期变化,得出经济发展结果.结果中唯一的实质变化是杠杆率不再重要.正如在数据这一部分提到的,普遍预期和《世界经济展望》中的预期变化最主要的不同在于东欧国家中：前者中这些国家的预期修正数据比后者中提供的数据更大.由于杠杆率对这些地区的重要性,在《世界经济展望》中,这一联系较弱.