请大家帮忙写一篇关于success and challenges 的英语演讲稿

请大家帮忙写一篇关于success and challenges 的英语演讲稿
我就30分了,全部悬赏了,救命啊
要求适合初三水平演讲的英语稿
我再积攒点分 会提高悬赏的

Preliminary draft
Not for citation
China’s Economic Reform：
Strategies, Success and Challenges
Fan He
Institute of World Economics and Politics
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
5 Jianguomennei Street, Beijing 100732
hefan@21cn.net
I Introduction
The rise of China is a major episode in world economic history. From
the late 1970s, China unleashed market-oriented reform and open
policy. During the past two decades, China experienced extraordinary
growth. Since 1978 GDP growth rates have averaged 10 per cent per
annum, 10.7 in the 1990s, rivaling the record achieved by Japan and
the “Four Tigers” (South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong and Taiwan
province of China) in their fast growing period. During the last
several years, with the outbreak of the financial crises in East
Asia, Latin American and Russia, and the collapse of the “New
Economy” bubble in the U.S., the world economy slowed down, but
China still maintains quite robust growth. Even the sudden strike of
the SARS in 2003 did not stop the vigorous growth in China. We
predict that the growth rate this year will be more than 8%.
In a short span of time, China experienced three historic
transformations simultaneously. First, China is undergoing economic
transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Second, China
is undergoing economic development from a traditional agricultural
economy to an industrialized economy. Third, China is changing from
autarky to an important player in the arena of world economy and
politics. China’s experience provides an ideal laboratory for
economics research. The study of the Chinese economy can not only
shed lights on the causes and process of this massive growth surge,
but also enrich our understanding of growth, development and
institutions.
With China’s growth occurring at bewildering speed and arising from
complex processes, it is not surprising that there has been much
debate among economists over the basic interpretations of the most
important features of China’s success. While some scholars tell us
“the China Miracle” (Lin, Cai, and Li, 1996), others informed us
about “Growth without Miracle” (Garnaut and Huang, 2001).
Experimentalist School highly praised China’s gradual, piecemeal
reform and believe the hybrid institutions (such as township and
village enterprises, or TVEs) reflect the distinctive Chinese social
and cultural background and are genuine innovation of the Chinese
political leaders. The convergence school, on the other hand,
believes that the institutional infrastructure that China needs for
long term growth has to converge to the best international practices
in advanced economies (Sachs and Woo, 2000).
China’s explosive growth challenges many widely accepted modalities
of policy analysis. Private ownership, political democracy, and the
rule of law, which are proposed by new classical economists as the
necessities of economic development, were notably absent, at least
at the earliest stage of China’s reform. China is just like a
student who never does his homework, but always outperforms his
classmates in examinations. Why is the story of China so unique? Is
China showcasing a new type of economic system that is different
from both socialism and market economy but is superior to both in
stimulating economic performance or China’s experiments are mainly
the product of political constrains rather than economic
optimization? Do we have the confidence to say that the past success
can guarantee the future prosperity? What are the major challenges
and constrains that China is facing?
This paper does not have the ambition to answer all the questions or
to convince all the audience. We will provide a survey as well as a
preliminary analysis on China’s economic reform. Section II provides
a brief overview of China’s economic development from 1949 to
present. Section III discusses the origin and the evolution of the
traditional planned economy. Conventional wisdom believes that China
copied the planned economy system from the Soviet Union. We argued
that the choice of the planned economy was endogenous. The planned
economy was adopted to facilitate the catch-up strategy and the
development of heavy industries. Section IV analyses the economic
reform in the early 1980s. The planned economy was not sustainable
because the government found that it is more and more difficult to
keep high growth rate and fulfill the goal of full employment. The
reform toke a gradual approach and the rise of newly rising sector
(or the non-state sector) made a major contribution the China’s
growth. Section V discusses the formation of the triangle of the
state-owned-bank (SOB), the state-owned-enterprises (SOE), and the
government. Section VI provides an analysis of the costs and
benefits of China’s entering into the WTO. The real reason that the
Chinese government is so eager to enter into the WTO is not the
static gain form trade. We believe that the Chinese leadership may
intentionally utilize this opportunity to push forward the domestic
economic reform and accelerate economic restructuring. Section VII
looking into the future and summarizes the remaining tasks for China
to accomplish in the near future in order to sustain high economic
growth and social stability.
II Overview
In the early 1950s, GDP per capita in China was less than 119 Yuan
or US$ 40 (current prices). Form 1953 to 1978, China’s annual growth
rate of GDP amounted to an average of 6.1 per cent. From table 1 we
can see that China’s growth in the 1960s rate was lower than that of
Japan and the “Four Tigers”, but higher than the ASEAN countries. In the 1970s, China’s growth was lower than both the “Four Tigers” and
the ASEAN countries.
Table 1 Economic growth of China, Japan, the “Four Tigers” and the
ASEAN
Country or region Real GDP Growth (%)
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990
China 5.2 5.8 10.2
Japan 10.9 5.0 4.0
Four Tigers
South Korea 8.6 9.5 9.4
Taiwan province 9.2 9.7 7.1
Hong Kong 10.0 9.3 6.9
Singapore 8.8 8.5 6.4
ASEAN
Indonesia 3.9 7.6 6.1
Malaysia 6.5 7.8 5.2
Philippines 5.1 6.3 1.0
Thailand 8.4 7.2 7.6
Sources: World Bank, various years; China Statistics Yearbook, 1995;
and Asian Development Bank,1997.
During this period, although comparatively speaking, China’s
economic growth was very remarkable, but the growth rate was not
stable. The process of growth was frequently interrupted by
political campaigns like the “Great Leap Forward” in 1958 and the
“Cultural Revolution” from 1966 to 1976. Eckstein (1977) pointed out
that China’s economic growth experienced “policy cycle”. China’s
economic policies changed so quickly that they had hardly gone on
for three years, which lead to the boom and burst of the Chinese
economy.
In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major program of economic
reform. The last two decades witnessed the dramatic transformation
of the Chinese economy. During this period, the average annual
growth rate of real GDP was 9.52 per cent. In 1980, per capita
income in China was RMB 460 Yuan (less than US$ 150),and in 2001,
this figure reached RMB 7540 Yuan (or US$ 900), with major cities
such as Beijing and Shanghai approaching US$ 4,000. Even taken
inflation into consideration, Chinese people’s living standard rose
almost 6 times in the last 20 years. If calculated on a purchasing
power basis, the increase of the size of Chinese economy is even
more impressive. The IMF found that on a purchasing power basis the
Chinese economy in 1990 accounted for just over 6 percent of world
output, ranking third behind the United States and Japan (IMF,
1993). A more recent research by the World Bank suggests that based
on purchasing power parity China ranked the second largest economy
in the world only behind the United States (World Bank, 1997).
Before China launched its open door policy from the late 1970s, it
was isolated from the world economy. China’s export was only US$ 18
billion in 1978, its share of world trade was only 0.6 per cent.
China was the 34th largest exporting country in the world. In the
last two decades, China quickly transformed itself to an important
trading power. Its foreign trade has increased almost 15 percent
annually in the past 20 years. In less than two decades, the total
value of China’s export has expanded more than 20-fold. In 2001
China’s export was US$ 266 billion, its import was US$ 244 billion.
The ratio of trade dependence, which measured by the ratio of the
sum of import and export to GDP, was 44 per cent. The World Bank
projects that China’s share of world trade will be around 10 percent
by 2020, making it the world’s second largest trader. (World Bank,
1997).